04/08/2024

South Carolina - Too Close To Call

Total Delegates: 55

A strong three-way showing will emerge between neighboring state favorite Pastor Senator Raphael Warnock, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Deacon Governor Andy Beshear.  According to Pew Research, 51% of Democrats in South Carolina are black, whereas 41% are white.  A pattern will emerge where two prominent black politicians will split the black Democrat vote in the south, leaving an opening for Gov. Beshear to walk away with a plurality of delegates.

Gov. Beshear doesn't have a clear path for the white Democrat vote in South Carolina.  In 2023, Govs. Pritzker and Newsom donated heavily to former Congressman Jim Clyburn staffer Clay Middleton in his bid for Mayor of Charleston.  Pritzker and Newsom will not cede the state and each will likely have heavy financial warchests.  In 2020, billionaire businessman Tom Steyer peaked in the South Carolina primary with 11.3% of the popular vote, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren combined 26.9% of the liberal vote, and young Mayor Pete Buttigieg peeling away 8.2% of President Biden's 48.6% victory.

In a much more crowded field, it will prove critical to invest heavily in the state.  If Warnock and Harris split the majority of the vote, they may each end up with 20+% of the vote, there's an opening to hit 25%+ for Gov. Beshear to take the plurality of the white Democrat vote, but also for Gov. Newsom to consolidate the liberal vote and hit around Bernie and Warren's collective delegate count and eke out a win.

While some may speculate black voters will gravitate toward black politicians as they did in '08 and '12 for Obama, the black vote is not a monolith and they proved themselves by supporting Biden over Harris overwhelmingly in '20.  Due to Biden's unpopularity (-11% disapproval), his endorsement will not likely bolster Harris and she'll need to earn the vote of black voters in South Carolina.  Known to be a deeply religious group, older black Democrats will likely gravitate toward religious leaders such as Sen. Warnock and Gov. Beshear versus liberal state Democrat Harris.  In addition, Gov. Newsom appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler and Gov. Pritzker's hand selected Lt. Gov Julianna Stratton (his heir and potentially the first black female governor of Illinois) prove street cred with the black community among their campaigns.  Like every election for as long as can be remembered, will Congressman Clyburn's endorsement be the critical path to victory in South Carolina?